In the past several decades, the ABL community has become extremely adept at pricing assets, such that liquidators can predict the outcome of a liquidation with a high degree of certainty. However, COVID-19 has caused worldwide governments, businesses, and citizens to take unprecedented actions; critically, many businesses have either partially shut down or delayed the disposition of assets. Until most businesses re-open and assets are again traded openly in the market, asset prices will have significant variability.
However, the market forces that will impact asset prices are known. While the exact change to values cannot yet be quantified, we can — with reasonable certainty — predict which assets will hold their value, and which will be most impacted. The major Market Forces are as follows: (1) if demand for the goods is subject to changes in Discretionary income, (2) whether the goods are Seasonal in nature, and (3) the extent to which the Supply Chain has been disrupted.
Tiger has rated, by inventory category, each of the three primary Market Forces as described above, on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing ‘little to no impact’ and 5 representing ‘high negative impact’. The 3 Market Force ratings by inventory category are then totaled. A total rating of 3 to 5 represents a low-risk category , 6 to 10 a moderate risk category, and 11 to 15 a high-risk category.